CFPB examines relationship between cashflow and serious delinquency

Federal Issues CFPB Credit Scores Credit Report Consumer Finance

On July 26, the CFPB posted a blog entry explaining that cashflow data could be more telling in determining a person’s ability to repay their loans than credit reports, which are typically calculated through a variety of credit products such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and student loans. The Bureau referenced its July 2020 Making Ends Meet Survey (covered by InfoBytes here), which was sampled off the Consumer Credit Panel, in order to “show that three self-reported proxies for cashflow appear predictive of serious delinquency, even when analyzing people with similar traditional credit scores.” The proxies include high accumulated savings, regularly saving and no overdrafts, and paying bills on time. While accounting for deficiencies such as sample size, the Bureau’s analysis showed that individuals with self-reported positive cash flow perform notably better than those with less positive cash flow, even with similar credit scores. Other findings include that individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to report (i) relatively high accumulated savings, which the Bureau defined as at least $3,000 across their checking and savings accounts; (ii) positive savings and no overdrafts; and (iii) no issues paying rent, mortgage, utilities, and regular household expenses. All three findings are also indicative of a reduced likelihood of serious delinquency, the Bureau found. According to the blog entry, the analysis “suggests that cashflow data may help lenders better identify borrowers with low likelihood of serious delinquency, even if these borrowers’ credit scores may have otherwise prevented them from receiving credit.”